Munster vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% Racing 92Racing 92 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% MunsterMunster 51.0%draw 2.5%46.5% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Racing 92 and 24 Munster, with the middle run at 4 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Racing 92.
Munster 1670, Racing 92 1707 — 37 points, favouring Racing 92
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster3–1–3Racing 927 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · Munster by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-12 | Racing 92 39–22 Munster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2019-11-23 | Munster 21–21 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2018-04-22 | Racing 92 27–22 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2018-01-14 | Racing 92 34–30 Munster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2017-10-21 | Munster 14–7 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.