Munster vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% Racing 92Racing 92 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% MunsterMunster 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Racing 92 and 29 Munster, half of them between level and 17 Munster, with the middle run at 7 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Munster 1728, Racing 92 1632 — 97 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster4–1–3Racing 928 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Munster by 3.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Munster 33–25 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Pairc Ui Chaoimh |
| 2020-01-12 | Racing 92 39–22 Munster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2019-11-23 | Munster 21–21 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2018-04-22 | Racing 92 27–22 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2018-01-14 | Racing 92 34–30 Munster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.