Munster vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Sale SharksSale Sharks 49.9%draw 2.5%47.6% MunsterMunster 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 29 Munster, half of them between level and 17 Munster, with the middle run at 7 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Munster 1728, Sale Sharks 1504 — 224 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster1–0–0Sale Sharks1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Munster by 55.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-25 | Munster 65–10 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.