Munster vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Sale SharksSale Sharks 50.8%draw 2.5%46.7% MunsterMunster 60.2%draw 2.5%37.3% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Sale Sharks and 31 Munster, with the middle run at 8 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Munster 1670, Sale Sharks 1558 — 112 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster1–0–0Sale Sharks1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Munster by 55.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-25 | Munster 65–10 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.