Munster vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% ScarletsScarlets 37.8%draw 2.5%59.7% MunsterMunster 69.2%draw 2.5%28.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Scarlets and 29 Munster, with the middle run at 7 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Scarlets.
Munster 1670, Scarlets 1334 — 336 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster11–1–4Scarlets16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 15.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Scarlets 21–34 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-02-15 | Munster 29–8 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-02-16 | Scarlets 7–42 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-03-03 | Munster 49–42 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2021-10-10 | Scarlets 13–43 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.