Munster vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 82.4%draw 2.5%15.1% ScarletsScarlets 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% MunsterMunster 74.5%draw 2.5%23.0% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scarlets and 32 Munster, half of them between 2 Munster and 20 Munster, with the middle run at 10 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Munster 1728, Scarlets 1273 — 455 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster11–1–4Scarlets16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 15.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Scarlets 21–34 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-02-15 | Munster 29–8 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-02-16 | Scarlets 7–42 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-03-03 | Munster 49–42 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2021-10-10 | Scarlets 13–43 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.