Munster vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster host Sharks on Saturday 31 October at Thomond Park, Limerick, so Munster are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Munster 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% SharksSharks 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% MunsterMunster 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 21 Munster, half of them between 5 Sharks and 11 Munster, with the middle run at 2 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Munster 1728, Sharks 1746 — 18 points, favouring Sharks
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–2–3Sharks7 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Sharks by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sharks 45–0 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-05-31 | Sharks 24–24 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Sharks 41–24 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-10-21 | Munster 34–21 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2023-04-22 | Sharks 22–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.