Munster vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 60.5%draw 2.5%37.0% SharksSharks 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% MunsterMunster 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Sharks and 24 Munster, with the middle run at 3 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Sharks.
Munster 1670, Sharks 1613 — 58 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–1–3Sharks6 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Sharks by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sharks 45–0 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Sharks 41–24 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-10-21 | Munster 34–21 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2023-04-22 | Sharks 22–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-04-01 | Sharks 50–35 Munster | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.