Munster vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 63.9%draw 2.5%33.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 59.4%draw 2.5%38.1% MunsterMunster 51.8%draw 2.5%45.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 23 Munster, half of them between 3 Stade Francais Paris and 13 Munster, with the middle run at 4 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Munster 1728, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 3 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–0–1Stade Francais Paris3 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Munster by 6.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Munster 33–7 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-01-16 | Munster 26–13 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-01-09 | Stade Francais Paris 27–7 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.