Munster vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 51.8%draw 2.5%45.7% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 66.4%draw 2.5%31.1% MunsterMunster 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Francais Paris and 22 Munster, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Munster 1670, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 105 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–0–1Stade Francais Paris3 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Munster by 6.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Munster 33–7 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-01-16 | Munster 26–13 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-01-09 | Stade Francais Paris 27–7 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.