Munster vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 68.5%draw 2.5%29.0% MunsterMunster 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 21 Munster, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Munster 1670, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 193 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster1–1–3Stade Toulousain5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Munster by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-22 | Stade Toulousain 20–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2022-12-11 | Munster 13–18 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2022-05-07 | Munster 24–24 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Munster 33–40 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2017-04-01 | Munster 41–16 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.