Munster vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% MunsterMunster 28.9%draw 2.5%68.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 16 Munster, half of them between 9 Stade Toulousain and 6 Munster, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Munster are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Munster 1728, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 264 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster1–1–3Stade Toulousain5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Munster by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-22 | Stade Toulousain 20–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2022-12-11 | Munster 13–18 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2022-05-07 | Munster 24–24 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Munster 33–40 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2017-04-01 | Munster 41–16 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.