Munster vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 52.1%draw 2.5%45.4% StormersStormers 73.7%draw 2.5%23.8% MunsterMunster 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 19 Munster, half of them between 7 Stormers and 9 Munster, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Munster 1728, Stormers 1845 — 117 points, favouring Stormers
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster4–0–2Stormers6 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Munster by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Munster 21–27 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-10-19 | Stormers 34–19 Munster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-11-18 | Munster 10–3 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2023-05-27 | Stormers 14–19 Munster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-04-15 | Stormers 24–26 Munster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.