Munster vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% ToulonToulon 46.0%draw 2.5%51.5% MunsterMunster 63.9%draw 2.5%33.6% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Toulon and 31 Munster, with the middle run at 8 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Toulon.
Munster 1670, Toulon 1435 — 236 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster1–0–1Toulon2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Munster by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Toulon 27–25 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-01-13 | Toulon 18–29 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.