Munster vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% ToulonToulon 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% MunsterMunster 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Toulon and 27 Munster, half of them between 2 Toulon and 16 Munster, with the middle run at 6 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Munster 1728, Toulon 1663 — 65 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–0–1Toulon3 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Munster by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Toulon 27–25 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-01-13 | Toulon 18–29 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-03-31 | Munster 20–19 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.