Munster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 76.9%draw 2.5%20.6% ZebreZebre 28.4%draw 2.5%69.1% MunsterMunster 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Zebre and 35 Munster, with the middle run at 10 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Zebre.
Munster 1670, Zebre 1309 — 362 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster14–0–1Zebre15 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Munster by 24.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 20.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | Zebre 42–33 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-03-01 | Munster 45–29 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-10-01 | Munster 21–5 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-01-29 | Zebre 17–34 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2020-11-30 | Munster 52–3 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.