Munster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 88.4%draw 2.5%9.1% ZebreZebre 20.9%draw 2.5%76.6% MunsterMunster 83.1%draw 2.5%14.4% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 38 Munster, half of them between 5 Munster and 26 Munster, with the middle run at 13 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Munster 1728, Zebre 1071 — 658 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster15–0–1Zebre16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 23.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 20.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Munster 21–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Zebre 42–33 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-03-01 | Munster 45–29 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-10-01 | Munster 21–5 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-01-29 | Zebre 17–34 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.