Namibia vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 32.6%draw 1.2%66.2% PortugalPortugal 88.6%draw 1.2%10.2% NamibiaNamibia 21.4%draw 1.2%77.4% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Portugal and 16 Namibia, half of them between 15 Portugal and 4 Namibia, with the middle run at 4 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-20 on a tight afternoon and 35-31 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Namibia 1240, Portugal 1638 — 398 points, favouring Portugal
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia6–0–3Portugal9 meetings, 1990 to 2024 · Namibia by 10.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-13 | Namibia 22–37 Portugal | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Portugal 23–29 Namibia | — | Estadio Municipal do Taveiro |
| 2014-11-22 | Portugal 29–20 Namibia | — | Estadio Universitario |
| 2011-06-15 | Portugal 23–29 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf(neutral) |
| 2010-11-20 | Portugal 24–12 Namibia | — | Estadio Universitario |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.