Namibia vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 49.7%draw 3.0%47.3% RomaniaRomania 69.7%draw 3.0%27.3% NamibiaNamibia 38.3%draw 3.0%58.7% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Romania and 25 Namibia, half of them between 6 Romania and 11 Namibia, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Namibia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Namibia 1240, Romania 1265 — 25 points, favouring Romania
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Namibia are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Romania are on 47.3%, and a draw takes the other 3.0%.
Head to head
Namibia1–0–5Romania6 meetings, 2003 to 2016 · Romania by 15.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-09 | Romania 20–8 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2015-06-17 | Romania 43–3 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2011-06-10 | Romania 13–11 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2010-06-11 | Romania 17–21 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2007-06-16 | Romania 28–16 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.