Namibia vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 60.4%draw 2.8%36.8% RussiaRussia 58.0%draw 2.8%39.2% NamibiaNamibia 50.3%draw 2.8%46.9% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Russia and 33 Namibia, half of them between 4 Russia and 18 Namibia, with the middle run at 4 Namibia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Namibia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Namibia 1240, Russia 1137 — 103 points, favouring Namibia
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia2–0–5Russia7 meetings, 1994 to 2019 · Russia by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-15 | Namibia 0–20 Russia | — | Estadio Charrúa(neutral) |
| 2018-11-10 | Russia 47–20 Namibia | — | Kuban Stadium |
| 2017-06-18 | Namibia 10–31 Russia | — | Estadio Charrúa(neutral) |
| 2015-07-18 | Namibia 45–5 Russia | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2015-07-11 | Namibia 39–19 Russia | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.