Namibia vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Namibia 85.0%14.0% RussiaRussia 24.5%74.5% NamibiaNamibia 79.8%19.2% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Russia and 36 Namibia, with the middle run at 10 Namibia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Namibia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Namibia, negative favours Russia.
Namibia 930, Russia 425 — 505 points, favouring Namibia
Namibia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia2–0–1Russia3 meetings, 2015 to 2018 · Namibia by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-10 | Russia 47–20 Namibia | — | Kuban Stadium |
| 2015-07-18 | Namibia 45–5 Russia | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2015-07-11 | Namibia 39–19 Russia | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.