Namibia vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 3.7%95.3% South AfricaSouth Africa 97.3%1.7% NamibiaNamibia 2.7%96.3% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 56 South Africa and 2 South Africa, half of them between 39 South Africa and 8 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 42 and 97 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-16 on a tight afternoon and 51-30 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Namibia 1240, South Africa 2512 — 1272 points, favouring South Africa
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–3South Africa3 meetings, 2007 to 2019 · South Africa by 77.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | South Africa 57–3 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2011-09-22 | South Africa 87–0 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | North Harbour Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-08-15 | South Africa 105–13 Namibia | — | Newlands Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.