Namibia vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 22.5%draw 1.6%75.9% SpainSpain 87.2%draw 1.6%11.2% NamibiaNamibia 16.3%draw 1.6%82.1% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Spain and 10 Namibia, half of them between 14 Spain and 1 Spain, with the middle run at 5 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-19 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Namibia 1240, Spain 1566 — 326 points, favouring Spain
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia2–0–6Spain8 meetings, 1991 to 2022 · Spain by 5.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | Spain 34–15 Namibia | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
| 2018-11-17 | Spain 34–13 Namibia | — | Universitaria Complutense |
| 2017-06-10 | Namibia 13–15 Spain | — | Estadio Charrúa(neutral) |
| 2016-06-13 | Namibia 34–32 Spain | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf(neutral) |
| 2015-06-21 | Spain 20–3 Namibia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.