Namibia vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 32.2%draw 2.3%65.5% TongaTonga 81.5%draw 2.3%16.2% NamibiaNamibia 22.1%draw 2.3%75.6% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Tonga and 16 Namibia, half of them between 13 Tonga and 4 Namibia, with the middle run at 4 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Namibia 1240, Tonga 1454 — 214 points, favouring Tonga
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–2Tonga2 meetings, 1997 to 2015 · Tonga by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-29 | Tonga 35–21 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Sandy Park(neutral) |
| 1997-05-24 | Namibia 14–20 Tonga | — | National Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.