Namibia vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Namibia 55.7%draw 3.0%41.3% TongaTonga 62.8%draw 3.0%34.2% NamibiaNamibia 43.2%draw 3.0%53.8% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Tonga and 25 Namibia, with the middle run at 2 Namibia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Namibia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Namibia, negative favours Tonga.
Namibia 930, Tonga 938 — 7 points, favouring Tonga
Namibia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–1Tonga1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Tonga by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-29 | Tonga 35–21 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Sandy Park(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.