Namibia vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Namibia 26.4%draw 2.1%71.5% UruguayUruguay 78.4%draw 2.1%19.5% NamibiaNamibia 21.1%draw 2.1%76.8% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 Uruguay and 10 Namibia, with the middle run at 9 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Namibia, negative favours Uruguay.
Namibia 930, Uruguay 1177 — 246 points, favouring Uruguay
Namibia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–4Uruguay4 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Uruguay by 9.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-27 | Uruguay 36–26 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Uruguay 26–18 Namibia | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2017-11-25 | Namibia 34–39 Uruguay | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Namibia 36–52 Uruguay | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.