Namibia vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 26.3%draw 1.9%71.8% UruguayUruguay 88.0%draw 1.9%10.1% NamibiaNamibia 16.7%draw 1.9%81.4% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Uruguay and 13 Namibia, half of them between 15 Uruguay and 1 Namibia, with the middle run at 5 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Namibia 1240, Uruguay 1520 — 280 points, favouring Uruguay
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia1–0–5Uruguay6 meetings, 2000 to 2023 · Uruguay by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-27 | Uruguay 36–26 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Uruguay 26–18 Namibia | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2019-06-09 | Uruguay 28–30 Namibia | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2017-11-25 | Namibia 34–39 Uruguay | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Namibia 36–52 Uruguay | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.