New South Wales Waratahs vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
New South Wales Waratahs 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 69.1%draw 2.5%28.4% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New South Wales Waratahs v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New South Wales Waratahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Queensland Reds and 20 New South Wales Waratahs, half of them between 6 Queensland Reds and 10 New South Wales Waratahs, with the middle run at 1 New South Wales Waratahs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why New South Wales Waratahs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New South Wales Waratahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New South Wales Waratahs, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
New South Wales Waratahs 1289, Queensland Reds 1460 — 171 points, favouring Queensland Reds
New South Wales Waratahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New South Wales Waratahs12–0–10Queensland Reds22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 1.9 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Queensland Reds by 7.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Queensland Reds 26–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-02-13 | New South Wales Waratahs 36–12 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–28 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Queensland Reds 35–15 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-05-31 | New South Wales Waratahs 26–27 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.