New South Wales Waratahs vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
New South Wales Waratahs 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 67.4%draw 2.5%30.1% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 38.8%draw 2.5%58.7% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New South Wales Waratahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Queensland Reds and 15 New South Wales Waratahs, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why New South Wales Waratahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New South Wales Waratahs, negative favours Queensland Reds.
New South Wales Waratahs 1311, Queensland Reds 1454 — 143 points, favouring Queensland Reds
New South Wales Waratahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New South Wales Waratahs12–0–9Queensland Reds21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Queensland Reds by 10.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Queensland Reds 26–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-02-13 | New South Wales Waratahs 36–12 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–28 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Queensland Reds 35–15 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-02-24 | Queensland Reds 40–22 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.