New South Wales Waratahs vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
New South Wales Waratahs 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% StormersStormers 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 24.6%draw 2.5%72.9% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New South Wales Waratahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 10 New South Wales Waratahs, with the middle run at 3 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why New South Wales Waratahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New South Wales Waratahs, negative favours Stormers.
New South Wales Waratahs 1311, Stormers 1716 — 405 points, favouring Stormers
New South Wales Waratahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New South Wales Waratahs1–0–1Stormers2 meetings, 2015 to 2018 · Stormers by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-24 | New South Wales Waratahs 34–27 Stormers | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2015-04-11 | New South Wales Waratahs 18–32 Stormers | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.