New South Wales Waratahs vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
New South Wales Waratahs 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Western ForceWestern Force 69.2%draw 2.5%28.3% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 39.0%draw 2.5%58.5% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New South Wales Waratahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Western Force and 20 New South Wales Waratahs, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why New South Wales Waratahs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New South Wales Waratahs, negative favours Western Force.
New South Wales Waratahs 1311, Western Force 1463 — 152 points, favouring Western Force
New South Wales Waratahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New South Wales Waratahs9–0–8Western Force17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · New South Wales Waratahs by 3.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Western Force 31–25 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2026-05-01 | New South Wales Waratahs 17–20 Western Force | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-24 | Western Force 17–22 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-03-08 | New South Wales Waratahs 34–10 Western Force | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Western Force 27–7 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.