New South Wales Waratahs vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
New South Wales Waratahs 56.0%draw 2.5%41.5% Western ForceWestern Force 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 40.8%draw 2.5%56.7% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New South Wales Waratahs v Western Force, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New South Wales Waratahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Western Force and 19 New South Wales Waratahs, half of them between 6 Western Force and 9 New South Wales Waratahs, with the middle run at 1 New South Wales Waratahs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-32 on an open one.
Why New South Wales Waratahs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New South Wales Waratahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New South Wales Waratahs, a bar to the left helps Western Force.
New South Wales Waratahs 1289, Western Force 1471 — 182 points, favouring Western Force
New South Wales Waratahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New South Wales Waratahs9–0–8Western Force17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · New South Wales Waratahs by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · New South Wales Waratahs by 3.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Western Force 31–25 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2026-05-01 | New South Wales Waratahs 17–20 Western Force | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-24 | Western Force 17–22 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-03-08 | New South Wales Waratahs 34–10 Western Force | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Western Force 27–7 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.