Northampton Saints vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Northampton Saints 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% PauPau 43.0%draw 2.5%54.5% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Pau and 31 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 8 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Northampton Saints, negative favours Pau.
Northampton Saints 1918, Pau 1640 — 278 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints1–0–0Pau1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Northampton Saints by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Pau 27–35 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.