Northampton Saints vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% PauPau 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 56.9%draw 2.5%40.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Pau and 28 Northampton Saints, half of them between 1 Pau and 17 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 6 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Northampton Saints 1957, Pau 1818 — 139 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints1–0–0Pau1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Northampton Saints by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Pau 27–35 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.