Northampton Saints vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 76.7%draw 2.5%20.8% Racing 92Racing 92 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Racing 92 and 32 Northampton Saints, half of them between 1 Northampton Saints and 19 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 8 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Northampton Saints 1957, Racing 92 1632 — 325 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints0–1–3Racing 924 meetings, 2015 to 2021 · Racing 92 by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-10 | Northampton Saints 14–45 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-12-18 | Northampton Saints 9–9 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-12-12 | Racing 92 33–3 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2015-01-24 | Northampton Saints 8–32 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.