Northampton Saints vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Northampton Saints 71.7%draw 2.5%25.8% Racing 92Racing 92 49.1%draw 2.5%48.4% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 59.6%draw 2.5%37.9% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Racing 92 and 29 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 7 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Northampton Saints, negative favours Racing 92.
Northampton Saints 1918, Racing 92 1707 — 211 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints0–1–3Racing 924 meetings, 2015 to 2021 · Racing 92 by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-10 | Northampton Saints 14–45 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-12-18 | Northampton Saints 9–9 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-12-12 | Racing 92 33–3 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2015-01-24 | Northampton Saints 8–32 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.