Northampton Saints vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Northampton Saints 76.8%draw 2.5%20.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 36.3%draw 2.5%61.2% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sale Sharks and 28 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 7 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Northampton Saints, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Northampton Saints 1918, Sale Sharks 1558 — 360 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints10–0–14Sale Sharks24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 0.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Northampton Saints by 0.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Sale Sharks 29–43 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-12-20 | Northampton Saints 47–21 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-03-28 | Sale Sharks 27–24 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-10-18 | Northampton Saints 47–17 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2023-12-30 | Northampton Saints 21–17 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.