Northampton Saints vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Northampton Saints 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% SaracensSaracens 57.9%draw 2.5%39.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Saracens and 28 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 5 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Northampton Saints, negative favours Saracens.
Northampton Saints 1918, Saracens 1802 — 116 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints9–0–17Saracens26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 10.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Saracens by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Saracens 17–21 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 2025-10-24 | Northampton Saints 43–31 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-05-17 | Northampton Saints 28–24 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-12-22 | Saracens 39–24 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-03-29 | Northampton Saints 41–30 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.