Northampton Saints vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% SaracensSaracens 59.1%draw 2.5%38.4% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Saracens and 27 Northampton Saints, half of them between 2 Saracens and 16 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 6 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Northampton Saints 1957, Saracens 1861 — 96 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints10–0–17Saracens27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 9.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Northampton Saints by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Saracens 17–21 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 2025-10-24 | Northampton Saints 43–31 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-05-17 | Northampton Saints 28–24 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-12-22 | Saracens 39–24 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-05-31 | Northampton Saints 22–20 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.