Northampton Saints vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 85.9%draw 2.5%11.6% ScarletsScarlets 22.5%draw 2.5%75.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 82.1%draw 2.5%15.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 35 Northampton Saints, half of them between 4 Northampton Saints and 23 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 11 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-28 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Northampton Saints 1957, Scarlets 1273 — 684 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints3–0–0Scarlets3 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Northampton Saints 43–28 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2016-01-23 | Scarlets 10–22 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2015-11-14 | Northampton Saints 15–11 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.