Northampton Saints vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Northampton Saints 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 55.4%draw 2.5%42.1% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Stade Francais Paris and 27 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 4 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Northampton Saints, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Northampton Saints 1918, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 143 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Francais Paris by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Stade Francais Paris 45–35 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.