Northampton Saints vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 73.5%draw 2.5%24.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Stade Francais Paris and 30 Northampton Saints, half of them between level and 18 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 7 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Northampton Saints 1957, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 226 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Francais Paris by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Stade Francais Paris 45–35 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.