Pau vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau host Perpignan on Saturday 7 November at Stade du Hameau, Pau, so Pau are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Pau 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% PerpignanPerpignan 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% PauPau 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 36 Pau, half of them between 3 Pau and 24 Pau, with the middle run at 12 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Pau 1818, Perpignan 1424 — 395 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau9–0–3Perpignan12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Pau by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Pau by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Perpignan 40–24 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-11-01 | Pau 27–23 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-02-22 | Pau 23–6 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-10-05 | Perpignan 11–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-06-08 | Pau 36–24 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.