Pau vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% PerpignanPau 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Perpignan and 35 Pau, with the middle run at 10 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Perpignan.
Pau 1640, Perpignan 1346 — 294 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau9–0–3Perpignan12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Pau by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Pau by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Perpignan 40–24 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-11-01 | Pau 27–23 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-02-22 | Pau 23–6 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-10-05 | Perpignan 11–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-06-08 | Pau 36–24 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.