Pau vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% Racing 92Racing 92 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% PauPau 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Racing 92 and 21 Pau, with the middle run at 2 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Racing 92.
Pau 1640, Racing 92 1707 — 67 points, favouring Racing 92
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau7–1–13Racing 9221 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 3.2 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Pau by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Pau 31–33 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2026-03-28 | Pau 27–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-10-25 | Racing 92 15–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2025-03-01 | Racing 92 29–47 Pau | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-11-02 | Pau 23–33 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.