Pau vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% Racing 92Racing 92 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% PauPau 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Racing 92 and 30 Pau, half of them between 1 Pau and 19 Pau, with the middle run at 8 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Pau 1818, Racing 92 1632 — 186 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau7–1–14Racing 9222 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Racing 92 by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Pau 31–33 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2026-03-28 | Pau 27–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-10-25 | Racing 92 15–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2025-03-01 | Racing 92 29–47 Pau | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-11-02 | Pau 23–33 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.