Pau vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% ScarletsScarlets 40.5%draw 2.5%57.0% PauPau 66.9%draw 2.5%30.6% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 32 Pau, with the middle run at 9 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Scarlets.
Pau 1640, Scarlets 1334 — 306 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau1–0–0Scarlets1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Pau by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Scarlets 38–47 Pau | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.