Pau vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 84.1%draw 2.5%13.4% ScarletsScarlets 30.0%draw 2.5%67.5% PauPau 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 35 Pau, half of them between 3 Pau and 23 Pau, with the middle run at 11 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Pau 1818, Scarlets 1273 — 545 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau1–0–0Scarlets1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Pau by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Scarlets 38–47 Pau | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.