Pau vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% SharksSharks 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% PauPau 47.4%draw 2.5%50.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Sharks and 26 Pau, half of them between 4 Sharks and 14 Pau, with the middle run at 4 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Pau 1818, Sharks 1746 — 72 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau0–0–1Sharks1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Sharks by 40.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Sharks 45–5 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.