Pau vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 55.5%draw 2.5%42.0% SharksSharks 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% PauPau 43.5%draw 2.5%54.0% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 21 Pau, with the middle run at 2 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Sharks.
Pau 1640, Sharks 1613 — 27 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau0–0–1Sharks1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Sharks by 40.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Sharks 45–5 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.