Pau vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 42.6%draw 2.5%54.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% PauPau 36.5%draw 2.5%61.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Stade Francais Paris and 15 Pau, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Pau are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Pau 1640, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 135 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau10–1–12Stade Francais Paris23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Pau by 0.2 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Pau by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stade Francais Paris 34–32 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-09-13 | Pau 34–10 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-02-15 | Stade Francais Paris 39–37 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-09-28 | Pau 30–16 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-03-02 | Stade Francais Paris 25–12 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.