Pau vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 73.5%draw 2.5%24.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% PauPau 49.9%draw 2.5%47.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Stade Francais Paris and 26 Pau, half of them between level and 15 Pau, with the middle run at 6 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Pau 1818, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 87 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau10–0–14Stade Francais Paris24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Pau by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stade Francais Paris 34–32 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-09-13 | Pau 34–10 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-02-15 | Stade Francais Paris 39–37 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-09-28 | Pau 30–16 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-03-02 | Stade Francais Paris 25–12 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.