Pau vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% PauPau 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Stade Toulousain and 16 Pau, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 29-29 on an open one.
Why Pau are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Pau 1640, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 223 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau7–0–14Stade Toulousain21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 13.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Stade Toulousain by 12.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Stade Toulousain 59–22 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-10-18 | Pau 30–26 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-03-29 | Stade Toulousain 55–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-10-19 | Pau 14–22 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-03-30 | Stade Toulousain 31–29 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.