Pau vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau host Stade Toulousain on Sunday 1 November at Stade du Hameau, Pau, so Pau are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Pau 56.4%draw 2.5%41.1% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% PauPau 36.0%draw 2.5%61.5% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 22 Pau, half of them between 6 Stade Toulousain and 11 Pau, with the middle run at 2 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Pau 1818, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 174 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau7–0–14Stade Toulousain21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 13.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Stade Toulousain by 12.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Stade Toulousain 59–22 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-10-18 | Pau 30–26 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-03-29 | Stade Toulousain 55–10 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-10-19 | Pau 14–22 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-03-30 | Stade Toulousain 31–29 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.