Pau vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 68.7%draw 2.5%28.8% ToulonToulon 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% PauPau 59.8%draw 2.5%37.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Toulon and 24 Pau, with the middle run at 5 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours Toulon.
Pau 1640, Toulon 1435 — 205 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau5–1–14Toulon20 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Toulon by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Toulon by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Pau 32–12 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-10-04 | Toulon 33–17 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-05-17 | Pau 25–21 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-12-21 | Toulon 56–25 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-02-24 | Pau 17–9 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.