Pau vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Toulon host Pau on Saturday 24 October at Stade Mayol, Toulon, so Toulon are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Pau 76.9%draw 2.5%20.6% ToulonToulon 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% PauPau 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Toulon v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Pau and 25 Toulon, half of them between 3 Pau and 14 Toulon, with the middle run at 5 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Toulon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Toulon, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Toulon 1663, Pau 1818 — 155 points, favouring Pau
Toulon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau5–1–15Toulon21 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Toulon by 8.5 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Toulon by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Pau 32–12 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-10-04 | Toulon 33–17 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-05-17 | Pau 25–21 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-12-21 | Toulon 56–25 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-02-24 | Pau 17–9 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.