Pau vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 90.8%draw 2.5%6.7% US MontaubanPau 86.7%draw 2.5%10.8% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Pau and 41 Pau, with the middle run at 14 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Pau, negative favours US Montauban.
Pau 1640, US Montauban 824 — 816 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau2–0–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Pau by 36.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Pau 71–35 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-12-20 | US Montauban 17–53 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.