Pau vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 86.1%draw 2.5%11.4% VannesVannes 36.2%draw 2.5%61.3% PauPau 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 37 Pau, half of them between 4 Pau and 25 Pau, with the middle run at 13 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Pau 1818, Vannes 1280 — 538 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau3–0–0Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Pau by 17.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Vannes 40–43 Pau | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2025-05-31 | Vannes 26–52 Pau | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-12-28 | Pau 48–24 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.