Pau vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Pau 86.9%draw 2.5%10.6% ZebreZebre 20.0%draw 2.5%77.5% PauPau 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Pau v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Pau wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 40 Pau, half of them between 4 Pau and 26 Pau, with the middle run at 13 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Pau are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Pau winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Pau, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Pau 1818, Zebre 1071 — 748 points, favouring Pau
Pau are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Pau3–0–1Zebre4 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Pau by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Zebre 31–15 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-01-20 | Pau 28–27 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2018-01-13 | Pau 42–14 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2017-10-21 | Zebre 33–38 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.