Perpignan vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Racing 92 and 13 Perpignan, with the middle run at 3 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours Racing 92.
Perpignan 1346, Racing 92 1707 — 361 points, favouring Racing 92
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
12 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 10.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Racing 92 by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | Perpignan 15–28 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-04-19 | Perpignan 28–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-04-05 | Perpignan 18–24 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-10-26 | Racing 92 30–23 Perpignan | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-02-03 | Perpignan 26–5 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.