Perpignan vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% Racing 92Racing 92 83.5%draw 2.5%14.0% PerpignanPerpignan 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Racing 92 and 17 Perpignan, half of them between 7 Racing 92 and 8 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Perpignan 1424, Racing 92 1632 — 208 points, favouring Racing 92
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan4–0–10Racing 9214 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 11.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Racing 92 by 10.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Racing 92 55–25 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2026-01-31 | Racing 92 37–31 Perpignan | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-09-20 | Perpignan 15–28 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-04-19 | Perpignan 28–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-04-05 | Perpignan 18–24 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.