Perpignan vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan 52.0%draw 2.5%45.5% Sale SharksSale Sharks 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% PerpignanPerpignan 36.8%draw 2.5%60.7% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sale Sharks and 18 Perpignan, half of them between 6 Sale Sharks and 9 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Perpignan 1424, Sale Sharks 1504 — 80 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan0–0–2Sale Sharks2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Sale Sharks by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-19 | Sale Sharks 39–10 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2018-10-12 | Perpignan 24–41 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.