Perpignan vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sale Sharks and 16 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Perpignan 1346, Sale Sharks 1558 — 212 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Sale Sharks by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-19 | Sale Sharks 39–10 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2018-10-12 | Perpignan 24–41 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.