Perpignan vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 84.5%draw 2.5%13.0% PerpignanPerpignan 24.8%draw 2.5%72.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Francais Paris and 16 Perpignan, half of them between 9 Stade Francais Paris and 7 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Perpignan 1424, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 307 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan2–0–11Stade Francais Paris13 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 14.8 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Francais Paris by 14.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stade Francais Paris 28–26 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2026-02-28 | Stade Francais Paris 42–21 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-10-04 | Perpignan 11–28 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-05-10 | Perpignan 20–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-12-21 | Stade Francais Paris 24–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.