Perpignan vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 82.1%draw 2.5%15.4% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Stade Francais Paris and 12 Perpignan, with the middle run at 6 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Perpignan 1346, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 429 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
11 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Stade Francais Paris by 15.5 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Francais Paris by 13.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Perpignan 11–28 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-05-10 | Perpignan 20–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-12-21 | Stade Francais Paris 24–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-02-17 | Stade Francais Paris 32–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2023-08-19 | Perpignan 7–29 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.