Perpignan vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain host Perpignan on Saturday 24 October at Stade Ernest-Wallon, Toulouse, so Stade Toulousain are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Perpignan 38.3%draw 2.5%59.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 88.2%draw 2.5%9.3% PerpignanPerpignan 18.7%draw 2.5%78.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 5 Stade Toulousain and 25 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 13 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Perpignan 1424 — 568 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan5–0–7Stade Toulousain12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 9.3 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Toulousain by 5.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Perpignan 30–27 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-09-13 | Stade Toulousain 31–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-06-07 | Perpignan 42–35 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-11-23 | Stade Toulousain 41–9 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-03-09 | Perpignan 27–17 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.