Perpignan vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 87.9%draw 2.5%9.6% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Stade Toulousain and 11 Perpignan, with the middle run at 6 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Perpignan 1346, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 517 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 9.3 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Toulousain by 5.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Perpignan 30–27 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-09-13 | Stade Toulousain 31–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-06-07 | Perpignan 42–35 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-11-23 | Stade Toulousain 41–9 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-03-09 | Perpignan 27–17 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.