Perpignan vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Toulon 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Toulon and 13 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours Toulon.
Perpignan 1346, Toulon 1435 — 89 points, favouring Toulon
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
11 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Toulon by 7.7 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Toulon by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Perpignan 36–20 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-12-28 | Toulon 31–16 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-22 | Toulon 40–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-03-02 | Toulon 44–22 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2023-11-04 | Perpignan 26–22 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.