Perpignan vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan host Toulon on Saturday 31 October at Stade Aime Giral, Perpignan, so Perpignan are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Perpignan 51.1%draw 2.5%46.4% ToulonToulon 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% PerpignanPerpignan 30.6%draw 2.5%66.9% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Toulon and 16 Perpignan, half of them between 7 Toulon and 8 Perpignan, with the middle run at 1 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Perpignan 1424, Toulon 1663 — 239 points, favouring Toulon
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan4–0–8Toulon12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Toulon by 7.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Toulon by 7.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Perpignan 36–20 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-12-28 | Toulon 31–16 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-22 | Toulon 40–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-11-30 | Perpignan 13–22 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-03-02 | Toulon 44–22 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.