Perpignan vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 US Montauban and 40 Perpignan, with the middle run at 12 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Perpignan, negative favours US Montauban.
Perpignan 1346, US Montauban 824 — 522 points, favouring Perpignan
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Perpignan by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Perpignan 31–8 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-10-25 | US Montauban 29–22 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.