Perpignan vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan 82.1%draw 2.5%15.4% VannesVannes 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% PerpignanPerpignan 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Vannes and 31 Perpignan, half of them between 2 Perpignan and 20 Perpignan, with the middle run at 9 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-25 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Perpignan 1424, Vannes 1280 — 143 points, favouring Perpignan
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan2–1–0Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Perpignan by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Perpignan 21–12 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-03-29 | Vannes 20–20 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-11-02 | Perpignan 32–13 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.