Perpignan vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Perpignan 85.0%draw 2.5%12.5% ZebreZebre 38.5%draw 2.5%59.0% PerpignanPerpignan 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Perpignan v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Perpignan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 34 Perpignan, half of them between 3 Perpignan and 22 Perpignan, with the middle run at 11 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Perpignan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Perpignan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Perpignan, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Perpignan 1424, Zebre 1071 — 353 points, favouring Perpignan
Perpignan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Perpignan1–0–0Zebre1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Perpignan by 18.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Zebre 21–39 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.