Portugal vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 81.7%draw 1.3%17.0% RomaniaRomania 33.8%draw 1.3%64.9% PortugalPortugal 73.1%draw 1.3%25.6% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Romania and 35 Portugal, half of them between 1 Portugal and 21 Portugal, with the middle run at 9 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Portugal 1638, Romania 1265 — 373 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal8–0–24Romania32 meetings, 1967 to 2026 · Romania by 13.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Portugal by 3.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Portugal 44–7 Romania | — | Estadio Nacional |
| 2025-03-16 | Portugal 7–21 Romania | — | CAR Rugby do Jamor |
| 2025-02-15 | Romania 6–34 Portugal | — | Stadionul Municipal |
| 2024-02-17 | Romania 24–49 Portugal | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2023-02-19 | Portugal 38–20 Romania | — | Estádio Restelo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 32. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.