Portugal vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Portugal 73.1%draw 1.6%25.3% RomaniaRomania 34.2%draw 1.5%64.3% PortugalPortugal 69.0%draw 1.5%29.5% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Romania and 41 Portugal, with the middle run at 11 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Portugal, negative favours Romania.
Portugal 1121, Romania 788 — 333 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–2Romania2 meetings, 2007 to 2018 · Romania by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-10 | Romania 36–6 Portugal | — | Arena Zimbrilor |
| 2007-09-25 | Romania 14–10 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.