Portugal vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 90.4%8.6% RussiaRussia 25.7%73.3% PortugalPortugal 81.7%17.3% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Portugal and 46 Portugal, half of them between 5 Portugal and 31 Portugal, with the middle run at 16 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 42-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Portugal 1638, Russia 1137 — 501 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal6–1–14Russia21 meetings, 2001 to 2021 · Russia by 6.4 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Russia by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-17 | Russia 26–49 Portugal | — | Nizhny Novgorod Stadium |
| 2020-02-22 | Russia 19–18 Portugal | — | Kaliningrad Stadium |
| 2016-03-19 | Portugal 21–53 Russia | — | Estadio Universitario |
| 2015-11-13 | Portugal 12–23 Russia | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground(neutral) |
| 2015-03-21 | Russia 21–8 Portugal | — | Central Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.