Portugal vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 6.4%92.6% ScotlandScotland 96.2%2.8% PortugalPortugal 4.4%94.6% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 48 Scotland and 1 Scotland, half of them between 33 Scotland and 6 Scotland, with the middle run at 17 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-14 on a tight afternoon and 43-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Portugal 1638, Scotland 2193 — 555 points, favouring Scotland
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–3Scotland3 meetings, 1998 to 2024 · Scotland by 52.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Scotland 59–21 Portugal | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2007-09-09 | Scotland 56–10 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard(neutral) |
| 1998-11-28 | Scotland 85–11 Portugal | — | Murrayfield |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.