Portugal vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 5.6%93.4% South AfricaSouth Africa 97.0%2.0% PortugalPortugal 3.8%95.2% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 55 South Africa and 1 South Africa, half of them between 39 South Africa and 8 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 87 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Portugal are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Portugal 1638, South Africa 2512 — 874 points, favouring South Africa
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–1South Africa1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · South Africa by 43.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | South Africa 64–21 Portugal | — | Toyota Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.