Portugal vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Portugal 4.2%94.8% South AfricaSouth Africa 92.2%6.8% PortugalPortugal 5.5%93.5% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 51 South Africa and 2 South Africa, with the middle run at 22 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-11 on a tight afternoon and 45-23 on an open one.
Why Portugal are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Portugal, negative favours South Africa.
Portugal 1121, South Africa 2036 — 915 points, favouring South Africa
Portugal are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–1South Africa1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · South Africa by 43.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | South Africa 64–21 Portugal | — | Toyota Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.