Portugal vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 70.9%draw 2.9%26.2% SpainSpain 54.5%draw 2.9%42.6% PortugalPortugal 56.9%draw 2.9%40.2% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Spain and 36 Portugal, half of them between level and 21 Portugal, with the middle run at 8 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Portugal 1638, Spain 1566 — 72 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal14–2–27Spain43 meetings, 1935 to 2026 · Spain by 5.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Spain by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Portugal 26–7 Spain | — | Estadio do Restelo |
| 2025-03-01 | Portugal 31–42 Spain | — | Estadio Nacional |
| 2024-03-03 | Portugal 33–30 Spain | — | Estadio do Restelo |
| 2023-03-04 | Portugal 27–10 Spain | — | Estádio Restelo |
| 2022-03-13 | Spain 33–28 Portugal | — | Estadio Nacional Universidad Complutense |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 43. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.