Portugal vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 80.7%draw 2.4%16.9% TongaTonga 37.5%draw 2.4%60.1% PortugalPortugal 70.6%draw 2.5%26.9% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Tonga and 35 Portugal, half of them between 1 Portugal and 21 Portugal, with the middle run at 8 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Portugal 1638, Tonga 1454 — 184 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal1–0–1Tonga2 meetings, 2009 to 2026 · Tonga by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Tonga 28–32 Portugal | — | Princess Auto Stadium(neutral) |
| 2009-11-28 | Portugal 19–24 Tonga | — | Estadio Universitario |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.