Portugal vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 71.8%draw 2.8%25.4% UruguayUruguay 52.3%draw 2.8%44.9% PortugalPortugal 58.5%draw 2.8%38.7% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Uruguay and 30 Portugal, half of them between 1 Uruguay and 17 Portugal, with the middle run at 6 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Portugal 1638, Uruguay 1520 — 118 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal3–0–8Uruguay11 meetings, 1999 to 2025 · Uruguay by 10.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Uruguay by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Portugal 8–26 Uruguay | — | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| 2012-11-11 | Uruguay 25–32 Portugal | — | Carrasco Polo Club |
| 2012-06-17 | Portugal 7–35 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf(neutral) |
| 2011-11-13 | Portugal 9–16 Uruguay | — | Estadio Municipal |
| 2007-03-24 | Uruguay 18–12 Portugal | — | Estadio Parque Central del Club Nacional |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.